BakingAdsSee beyond today’s return.
Projected ARPU at day 365, a confidence-adjusted estimate and a price suggestion to frame acquisition cost.
Forecast & ARPU Forecast-first performance intelligence
See the value ahead.
BakingAds brings campaign, cohort and revenue data together with ARPU forecasts. Spot potential earlier and make your next budget decision with more context.
Built for advertisers, affiliates and the teams behind performance.
See where value is heading.Network AllCountry ITLead signup
Observed ARPU
€7.50
To date
Forecast ARPU
€12.80
At day 365
Acquisition cost
€4.20
Per user
ARPU trajectoryObservedProjectedConfidence
DAY 0DAY 365
Follow value as it grows.Initial event signupMetric revenueGroup by week
| Cohort | W1 | W2 | W3 | W4 | W5 | W6 | W7 | W8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 31% | 24% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| Week 2 | 34% | 22% | 12% | 10% | 6% | 6% | 5% | — |
| Week 3 | 38% | 25% | 11% | 9% | 6% | 5% | — | — |
| Week 4 | 41% | 23% | 13% | 8% | 6% | — | — | — |
| Week 5 | 43% | 24% | 12% | 9% | — | — | — | — |
| Week 6 | 46% | 26% | 14% | — | — | — | — | — |
Share of each cohort’s revenue generated week by week after the initial event.
Find the signal in your data.Last 14 daysChannel AllExport CSV
| Campaign | Leads | Cost | Revenue | CPL | ARPU | ARPU 365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring_Search_IT | 1,240 | €3,720 | €2,980 | €3.00 | €2.40 | €6.10 |
| Video_Retarget_IT | 860 | €3,010 | €2,150 | €3.50 | €2.50 | €4.90 |
| Affiliate_Net_A | 2,105 | €5,260 | €3,370 | €2.50 | €1.60 | €2.30 |
| Social_Prospect_ES | 640 | €2,300 | €1,020 | €3.59 | €1.59 | €4.20 |
| Display_Broad_DE | 410 | €1,480 | €390 | €3.61 | €0.95 | €1.70 |
| Total | 5,255 | €15,770 | €9,910 | €3.00 | €1.89 | — |
Pick dimensions and metrics, save the view, return to it any time.
One place for the data you already have
Paid campaigns Affiliate networks Website tracking script Server-to-server API Revenue events
01 / The advantage
Today’s performance is only part of the picture.
A campaign’s early return rarely tells its whole story. BakingAds adds a forward view to the numbers you already track, so you can evaluate potential as well as performance.
Observe.
Spend, leads, purchases and revenue, connected from the ad click onward.
Forecast.
Projected ARPU up to day 365, learned from how similar cohorts matured.
Decide.
Compare expected value with acquisition cost before all revenue has arrived.
Forecasting
Move from “what happened?” to “what could this become?”
Put projected ARPU beside observed revenue to assess the potential of a cohort before its full value unfolds.
- ARPU at day 365, projected from the value already observed.
- Intermediate checkpoints to read how value is expected to mature.
- Reliability built in: every forecast carries a confidence level, or an explicit “not yet”.
Young cohort, day 21ObservedProjected
ACQUISITIONTIME → FUTURE VALUE
02 / The platform
All the context you need to make a move.
Connect what you spend, what users do and what they may be worth. Explore the details without losing sight of the decision.
Follow value as it grows.
Understand how acquired users perform over time, from their first event to the revenue they generate later.
CohortFind the signal in your data.
Break performance down by campaign, channel, country and the dimensions that matter, then save the views you return to.
ViewsInterpret the change.
A calendar × cohort-age matrix that separates a bad day from a change in the quality of acquired users.
Tell Me WhyCollect what counts.
Define lead, confirmation and purchase events; send them from your site and confirm them from your backend.
IntegrationsSave it, reopen it.
Saved analyses, favorites and CSV or Excel export keep the same comparison available week after week.
Analytics Our principle
Better no forecast than an unreliable one.Projections are estimates, not guaranteed revenue. BakingAds always shows them next to observed data and their reliability, and says so when an estimate is not possible.
Curve fit
HighHow closely the maturation curve matches real historical cohorts.
Cohort maturity
MediumA cohort observed for 28 days deserves more trust than one observed for 3.
Sample size
HighSmall samples produce volatile averages; the confidence factor accounts for it.
From data to decision
One workflow, five steps.
01 Collect events→02 Explore in Views→03 Follow in Cohort→04 Estimate in ARPU→05 Decide where to invest
03 / Built for performance
Different roles. One clearer view.
Whether you buy traffic or grow it for partners, the same question matters: where is the value heading?
Put more behind the traffic with potential.
Read acquisition costs alongside cohort revenue and forecast ARPU. See which segments deserve a closer look before reallocating spend, and set a spending limit with a margin of prudence.
Acquisition → future value
Understand the value behind every source.
Look beyond the first conversion. Compare traffic quality through cohort performance and projected user value to guide your next optimization.
Source → long-term value
The next decision starts here
Make room for what’s next.
Bring your performance data and future potential into the same conversation.